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Update based on the latest Flow Rate Technical Group estimation

Rep. Ed Markey mentioned that, based on an internal BP document, the worst-case scenario approaches 100,000 barrels of oil per day.

According to the The Flow Rate Technical Group, the most probable rate oscillates between 35,000 to 60,000 barrels per day ( from 1,458,800 to 2,526,000 US gallons; from 5,509,000 to 9,480,000 litters )

So, let’s update our figures based on this new estimation.

The volume of the Gulf of Mexico is 2,434,000 cubic kilometers ( source: GulfBase.org )

The spill started on April 20

The number of days since the spill started at given dates:

May 31…………42 days
June 30………..72 days
July 31………..103 days
August 31…….134 days

which in oil means:

May 31…………from 1,470,000 to 2,520,000 barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf
June 30………..from 2,520,000 to 4,320,000 barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf
July 31…………from 3,605,000 to 6,180,000 barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf
August 31……..from 4,690,000 to 8,040,000 barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf

As the volume of water of the Gulf of Mexico equals 15,309,399,400,000,000 barrels, the oil spill will represent:

May 31…………from 0.00000097% to 0.0000000164%
June 30………..from 0.000000017% to 0.000000029%
July 31…………from 0.000000024% to 0.000000041%
August 31……..from 0.000000032% to 0.000000054%

In English, this means that:

On May 31, 2010, from 9,7 to 16.4 units out of 1 billion units of the Gulf of Mexico waters will be made of oil

On June 30, 2010, from 16.8 to 28.5 units out of 1 billion units of the Gulf of Mexico waters will be made of oil

On July 31, 2010, from 23.8 to 40.5 units out of 1 billion units of the Gulf of Mexico waters will be made of oil

On August 31, 2010, from 32.2 to 54 units out of 1 billion units of the Gulf of Mexico waters will be made of oil

Finally, at the current estimated spill flow rate, it would required between 1.2 billion and 700 million of years for the Gulf to be entirely filled by oil

Let’s wish this madness ends up as soon as possible

Mike

Update based on June 10 new oil spill flow rate official estimation

Today, official authorities announced that the spill flow rate might actually be twice as intense as the latest estimation ( May 27 ).
Which means that instead of the 12,000 to 19,000 barrels flowing per day into the Gulf of Mexico, 25,000 to 40,000 barrels would actually be closer to reality.

So, let’s update our figures of the percentage of the waters of The Gulf of Mexico replaced by oil for given dates.

The volume of the Gulf of Mexico is 2,434,000 cubic kilometers ( source: GulfBase.org )

The latest official daily spill flow rate ( June 10 ) is estimated from 25,000 to 40,000 barrels a day ( from 1,042,000 to 1,684,000 US gallons; from 3,958,000 to 6,320,000 litters ) ( source: Wikipedia )

The spill started on April 20

The number of days since the spill started at given dates:

May 31…………42 days
June 30………..72 days
July 31………..103 days
August 31…….134 days

which in oil means:

May 31…………from 1,050,000 to 1,680,000 barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf
June 30………..from 1,800,000 to 2,880,000 barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf
July 31…………from 2,575,000 to 4,120,000 barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf
August 31……..from 3,350,000 to 5,360,000 barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf

As the volume of water of the Gulf of Mexico equals 15,309,399,400,000,000 barrels, the oil spill will represent:

May 31…………from 0.00000069% to 0.0000000109%
June 30………..from 0.000000012% to 0.000000019%
July 31…………from 0.000000017% to 0.000000027%
August 31……..from 0.000000023% to 0.000000036%

In English, this means that:

On May 31, 2010, from 6,9 to 10,9 units out of 1 billion units of the Gulf of Mexico waters will be made of oil

On June 30, 2010, from 12 to 19 units out of 1 billion units of the Gulf of Mexico waters will be made of oil

On July 31, 2010, from 17 to 27 units out of 1 billion units of the Gulf of Mexico waters will be made of oil

On August 31, 2010, from 23 to 36 units out of 1 billion units of the Gulf of Mexico waters will be made of oil

Finally, at the current estimated spill flow rate, it would required between 1.7 and 1,05 billion of years for the Gulf to be entirely filled by oil

I still hope you enjoyed these figures more than the spill

Mike

Proportion of the Gulf of Mexico waters replaced by oil for given dates

OK guys,

Just a quick calculation to determine the percentage of the Gulf of Mexico waters that will be replaced by oil at given dates ( May 31, June 30, July 31, August 31 ) depending on when the leak will be fixed.

The volume of the Gulf of Mexico is 2,434,000 cubic kilometers ( source: GulfBase.org )

The latest official daily spill flow rate ( May 27 ) is estimated from 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day ( from 500,000 to 800,000 US gallons; from 1,900,000 to 3,000,000 litters ) ( source: Wikipedia )

The spill started on April 20

The number of days since the spill started at given dates:

May 31…………42 days
June 30………..72 days
July 31………..103 days
August 31…….134 days

which in oil means:

May 31…………from 504,000 to 798,000 barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf
June 30………..from 864,000 to 1,368,000 barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf
July 31…………from 1,236,000 to 1,957,000 barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf
August 31……..from 1,608,000 to 2,546,000 barrels of oil leaked into the Gulf

As the volume of water of the Gulf of Mexico equals 15,309,399,400,000,000 barrels, the oil spill will represent:

May 31…………from 0.00000033% to 0.0000000052%
June 30………..from 0.0000000056% to 0.0000000089%
July 31…………from 0.0000000081% to 0.000000013%
August 31……..from 0.000000011% to 0.000000017%

In English, this means that:

On May 31, 2010, from 3,3 to 5,2 units out of 1 billion units of the Gulf of Mexico waters will be made of oil

On June 30, 2010, from 5,6 to 8,9 units out of 1 billion units of the Gulf of Mexico waters will be made of oil

On July 31, 2010, from 8,1 to 13 units out of 1 billion units of the Gulf of Mexico waters will be made of oil

On August 31, 2010, from 11 to 17 units out of 1 billion units of the Gulf of Mexico waters will be made of oil

Finally, at the current estimated spill flow rate, it would required between 3,5 and 2,2 billion of years for the Gulf to be entirely filled by oil

I hope you enjoyed these figures more than the spill

Mike

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